Are we heading for a rolling stock crisis?

Despite the rapid return to almost pre-Covid passenger numbers, 2023 saw several fleets of trains withdrawn and placed in store. Chris Milner casts an eye over the current rolling stock situation.

This article first appeared in the February 2024 issue of The Railway Magazine. Keep up to date and never miss an issue with a subscription to The Railway Magazine.

When the country went into lockdown in March 2020, rail ridership plummeted as a result of the pandemic and the national work from home advice.

Train operators reduced the number of services as well as the number of carriages used on those services to cut the gap between costs and revenue. Then in September 2020, franchised operations were ended with all but the open access operators moved to directly awarded management contracts by the Department for Transport; deals which give the DfT a massive say in what an operator can spend money on, how many trains they run, and how many carriages can be used.

The pandemic also meant driver training was suspended because of social distancing rules, affecting several new fleets of trains that were in the process of being introduced and resulting in units being stored in sidings around the country. The impact of that hiatus in training still has not been fully overcome.

In the week commencing December 18, 2023, the Office of Rail and Road published the latest quarterly passenger figures, which confirmed what many regular travellers knew – rail ridership was still climbing and was at 79% of pre-Covid levels overall. The ORR said that in the third quarter of 2023, 397 million journeys were made by rail, which was a 14% increase on the same period in the previous year. Just one operator, West Midlands Trains, saw a decline of 1% in passenger numbers. The biggest increase was on the Elizabeth Line (up 58%) followed by ScotRail (26%) and Avanti West Coast (25%).

The news that rail use has sprung back since the pandemic, albeit with less business travel and more leisure travel, is great but comes with a sting in the tail. While it is clear many workers have returned to their offices and resumed their commute – although on fewer days per week – fare-paying passengers are becoming angrier because many services are still being run with a minimal number of carriages, resulting in chronic overcrowding at times.

Anecdotal evidence on social media suggests that passengers are being left behind because trains are arriving at intermediate stations full and standing, with platform announcements advising passengers to catch the next train. Not helpful when you have a business or medical appointment, or you are on your way to a sporting or other event.

The overcrowding situation is exacerbated by a higher-than-normal number of train cancellations due to staff shortages, holidays and sickness; weather-related issues; ongoing industrial disputes; a greater number of trains needing repairs; and short-formed trains. Meanwhile train manufacturers are facing a crisis with a shortage of orders.

There seems to be a lack of understanding by Government departments of the rolling stock market in general. The construction lead times for new trains is years not months, and there don’t seem to be any tangible attempts to work with train operators on how to deal with rising passenger numbers or how rolling stock cascades, refurbishments or retirements can be efficiently handled in a way that benefits the passenger. Whatever happens seems to disadvantage the fare paying passenger.

CrossCountry shortages

Still fresh in the minds of many readers will be the enforced withdrawal last September – apparently on cost grounds – of the CrossCountry HST sets. Nothing replaced them, so in reality the overall capacity has reduced.

In an ideal world, the HST sets ought to have remained in traffic to provide capacity until the first seven Avanti West Coast (AWC) Class 221 sets had been successfully cascaded to CrossCountry – a move that in turn hinges on when the new Hitachi-built Class 805/807 sets will enter traffic with AWC. Although two ex-AWC four-car ‘221s’ have gone to Grand Central, what happens to the remaining 11 Avanti units isn’t yet clear.

Readers will be aware the North East/North West to South and South West arteries of the CrossCountry network are some of the heaviest used outside of London, connecting many key cities as well as universities – yet often the operator can only muster a four-car Class 220 or five-car Class 221 for an Edinburgh-Plymouth working.

Put another way, that’s 174 Standard Class and 26 First Class seats for a journey of just over 530 miles passing through Newcastle, York, Leeds, Sheffield, Derby, Birmingham, Bristol and Exeter. On a Class 221, there are 26 First Class and 220 Standard places, but it is simply not enough passenger capacity for the numbers that want to travel.

In reality, the number of seats on CrossCountry has changed little since the days of Virgin CrossCountry and ‘Operation Princess’ in the early 2000s, yet CrossCountry passenger numbers have soared from 29.7 million passenger journeys in 2009/10 to 40.1 million in 2017/18, according to the ORR.

What makes the situation somewhat worse is that the XC HSTs, with their seven carriages, could carry more passengers and had greater luggage space, but pressure on running costs from the DfT was just one of a number of factors that led to their withdrawal.

Safety concerns over the crashworthiness of HST cabs intensified following the Stonehaven tragedy in August 2020, which led to the loss of three lives including the driver and another crew member. Subsequently XC and GWR HST power cars and trailers have been sold to Mexico, and some of the power cars have been sold to Nigeria.

There is a desperate lack of seating capacity between Birmingham and Manchester. England’s second and third largest cities are connected by just two direct trains per hour, most of which are four- or five-car ‘Voyagers’. There are just two Avanti trains from Manchester Piccadilly to Euston via the West Midlands and no other operator is competing. Neither is it a particularly fast journey, the 71 miles taking an average of 89 minutes. Ironically, the now-cancelled HS2 project would have solved the capacity issue and cut journey time to just 45 minutes. 

Passenger capacity is also a problem on the Coventry-Birmingham-Wolverhampton corridor, where XC trains can often be full and standing (and there’s discouragement to use XC services), but at least there are alternative direct services.

TransPennine locos

From the December 2023 timetable change, TransPennine Express withdrew the remainder of the Class 68-hauled Mk.5a carriage sets and replaced them with Class 185s or bi-mode Class 802s, which now appear at Scarborough. The fact that 13 five-car train sets are no longer available means the number of seats and train sets available are spread more thinly and overcrowding is inevitable.

When TPE ordered the Mk.5a carriages, the plan was for 13 five-car sets (including a driving trailer) to be powered by Class 68s leased from DRS. These loco-hauled sets (called ‘Nova 3’ by TPE) were planned to work between Liverpool and Scarborough, as well as Manchester Airport to Saltburn. In the end, they only worked the former route… and quite often just the relatively short York-Scarborough section.

Unfortunately, use of the ‘Nova 3’ sets drew many complaints from Scarborough residents over the locomotives’ engine noise and fumes when at the TPE depot, and a proposed switch for them to work between Manchester and Cleethorpes never panned out as expected. A further factor was that Covid impacted driver training on these sets, so only small numbers of drivers were passed on them. Ultimately, they were never utilised to their full potential (see also Practice & Performance this month).

After just five years’ use, withdrawing the ‘Nova 3’ fleet will save TPE £37 million a year in running costs. With a question mark over the future of the Mk.5a sets – which could be reformed into fewer sets with more carriages, for example – there is an uncertain future over the Class 68s, of which 14 (Nos. 68019-032) were assigned especially for the TPE operation.

There have been suggestions the Mk.5a sets may go to Chiltern to replace the tired Mk.3s, but there have also been major concerns at Marylebone over the use of ‘68s’. Westminster Council has raised concerns over the pollution from the locos on tickover when using pure diesel fuel, but a way forward may be the growing trend to use HVO fuel (hydro-treated vegetable oil), a synthetic fuel made from vegetable oils or animal fats which burns ‘cleaner’ and with reduced emissions. 

Not life expired

What really beggars belief, however, is how virtually new rolling stock that still has a substantial amount of life left can be cast aside so quickly.

For example, when Abellio took over the Greater Anglia franchise in October 2016, it quickly announced a rolling stock order for 1043 carriages. Within this order were 120 vehicles from Stadler to be formed as 10 12-car trains to work the Stansted Express service.

At the time, the existing Class 379 ‘Stansted Express’ EMUs had only been in service just over five years (the press launch was March 17, 2011), and it was expected they would be cascaded to another operator. In fact, their apparent high leasing costs made them unattractive, and GA had withdrawn the entire fleet by February 2022.

For close on two years, the 120 vehicles (30 four-car sets built by Bombardier), have been in store at Worksop, but make occasional trips to Doncaster where they are placed under the OHL and powered up to keep them in ‘warm store’. With no other potential suitors, and only a third of the way through their expected 30-year service life, it is a terrible waste of resources.

Another fleet to fall on hard times is the Alstom-built Class 175. Entering service in June 2000 with First NorthWestern, the 11 two-car and 16 three-car 100mph capable DMUs were transferred to Arriva Trains Wales and later to Transport for Wales. Unfortunately, there have been numerous fires on the sets, six reported between 2004 and 2019, but the first two months of 2023 saw three further fires, all caused by an accumulation of debris and leaf litter in the underfloor engine bays.

This was a known issue for which a rectification programme was underway. However, at the start of March 2023, TfW temporarily withdrew all Class 175 units from service that had not been through the cleaning programme, and then withdrew the whole fleet as new Class 197s began to enter service. Currently 26 units are stored in various locations, along with the surviving car from fire damaged set No. 175008. Some sets have recently visited Ilford depot for unspecified work.

Seven year wait

Probably the most perverse situation is with South Western Railway’s ‘Arterio’ Class 701s.

In 2017, when FirstGroup/MTR was revealed as the new franchisee, it announced in June 2017 an order for 90 new ‘Aventra’ EMUs worth around £1 billion. The 60 10-car and 30 five-car units would be built in Derby by Bombardier (later Alstom after a company merger) and, even though deliveries began in June 2020, the first unit only entered service in January this year. The reason for this is the lack of an operating agreement with the rail unions. ASLEF told The RM the problem is with the software, which it claimed was not fit for purpose.

There were ominous signs that construction of the last of the 90 sets might be concluded before mass operations begin. There was a similar situation in the early 1980s when rail unions blocked all the new Class 317s built for St Pancras-Bedford services over the use of driver only operation. These units were thus initially stored at Nottingham and Cricklewood. However, on January 9, 2024, one Class 701 unit entered service between Waterloo and Windsor & Eton Riverside.

Since 2020, many of the ‘701s’ have been placed in store at great cost. Some are at the new Feltham depot, others are at Clapham Junction, MoD Marchwood and MoD Bicester, while some are at private sites such as Long Marston and Worksop. Until the ‘701s’ are introduced in numbers, the reliable 1980s-built Class 455 units will soldier on. It is also worth pointing out that Feltham depot, which cost £60 million to build and was completed in 2021, will not be fully functional until the ‘701s’ begin squadron service.

New train hiatus

A bigger concern for the wider rail industry is the future of the Alstom site at Litchurch Lane, Derby which has been building trains and carriages for almost 150 years.

Even though Alstom has won a £2 billion order with Hitachi to build 54 trains for HS2, cancellation of Phases 2a and 2b north of Birmingham has left the revised train order uncertain, and the Government is yet to indicate the size of the smaller fleet needed.

In any event, this work at Derby is not due to begin until 2026, and with the Class 701 production due to end in February this year, it leaves a big gap with no work – not even refurbishments. Despite considerable lobbying by local MPs for new orders, and with the situation being raised in Parliament, Alstom says 550 permanent and 780 temporary roles at Alstom could be lost when the production line rolls out the last 701.

At Hitachi in County Durham, although the situation is not quite as bleak because the site is fulfilling orders for 23 Avanti West Coast Class 805 and 807 units and 33 East Midlands ‘Aurora’ five-car Class 810s, there may be a shorter gap before the HS2 bodyshell build begins.

Nearly 18 months ago, Hitachi Rail CEO Andrew Barr was warning of the situation facing his company’s factory, adding that the Government needed to make decisions. In actuality, nothing has yet happened.

Despite the need for more trains to provide much-needed additional passenger capacity, there are no new orders in the pipeline for Alstom or Hitachi. Only CAF – which recently won an order from LNER for 10 10-car tri-mode units that will be assembled at its factory in Newport, South Wales – has secured a future in the short-term at least.

Shadow Rail Minister Stephen Morgan has called on the Government to stop “burying its head in the sand” and “find solutions” to protect rail manufacturing jobs across the country. He added: “Three years ago, the Government hailed the deal to manufacture HS2 trains in Britain as putting the country ‘firmly at the forefront of the high-speed rail revolution’.

“Today, the jobs of the skilled people who will build those trains, as well as their suppliers, are at risk due to delays and shocking planning from the government.”

Upgrades and cascades

There have also been situations where engineering modifications to update units have resulted in technological disappointment and the units being withdrawn and stored. The Class 769 fleet is one such example.

The theory was that the former Thameslink Class 319 EMUs (introduced from 1987, but made redundant by the introduction of Siemens Class 700 units) would be retro-fitted with a 520hp diesel unit and alternator under each driving trailer that would drive the existing traction equipment, thereby creating a bi-mode unit. A variation was a tri-mode unit whereby the former dual-voltage EMUs would regain their third-rail pickup shoes plus the diesel engines.

The plan was for bi-modes to be operated by Northern (eight units) and Transport for Wales (five units), with GWR operating 19 tri-mode units (Class 769/9) between Oxford, Reading and Gatwick Airport.

The first GWR tri-mode No. 769943 was delivered to Reading depot in August 2020, with the expectation of entering in early 2021, but technical and other issues delayed their introduction and the date was first pushed back to between June and December 2021, then into 2022. However, GWR subsequently decided the tri-mode plan would be abandoned, with the 19 units handed back to the leasing company by April 2023. Most are in store at Long Marston, but two are believed to be at Brodie Engineering in Kilmarnock for further assessment.

The Transport for Wales units also suffered a number of niggly problems and the operator withdrew its last unit on May 19, 2023. However, Northern’s ‘769s’ soldier on for the time being and can usually be found on services between Southport, Manchester Victoria and Stalybridge.

As has been reported in The RM, West Midlands Class 323s will be cascaded to Northern to replace the Class 319s. Several withdrawn ‘319s’ have already been sent to Sims Newport straight after being taken out of traffic and a slow cascade of 323s to Northern has begun.

While not wishing to be too despondent, there have been a number of notable successes with recent rolling stock introductions. The Class 700 Thameslink units are proving to be great workhorses, and once initial software issues on the ‘Aventra’ Class 710 (London Overground) and 720 units (Greater Anglia) was resolved, they have proved dependable and reliable in traffic. The same can be said of the CAF Class 196 and 197 DMUs in traffic with West Midlands Trains and Transport for Wales respectively.

Additionally, the all-electric Stadler ‘Flirt’ Class 745 plus the bi-mode Class 755 have settled down well with Greater Anglia, while over in Wales the same can be said for the diesel-only Class 231 units working on some of the Valley lines.

More to come

With the Class 379s stored, most ‘769s’ and the TPE Mk.5a stock recently removed from service, the next fleet slated for withdrawal in its entirety is the Class 350/2s used by London NorthWestern. This sub-fleet is a batch of 37 four-car 110mph units first introduced in 2008, and are to be replaced by a fleet of new Class 730 ‘Aventra’ units built by Bombardier/Alstom.

While the reliability of the Siemens product has never been in question, the ‘350/2s’ do have the unpopular 3+2 seating, while the other three sub-classes of ‘350s’ have 2+2 seating. The ‘350/2s’ also lack the dual voltage capability of the 350/1s. 

Like the Class 379s, the Class 350/2 is roughly halfway through its service life and owner Porterbrook has indicated to The RM it is exploring several opportunities for them, adding that it has not ruled out traction modification options to make the units more versatile.

Porterbrook also told The RM it is confident the Class 769s “will play a key role in supporting the transition towards a more efficient and sustainable railway in the future” and confirmed that two of the units are being converted into express freight vehicles.

The Elizabeth Line has proven extremely popular, and between October 15 and November 11 last year carried 17.8 million passengers, creating a new record – the figure up from the previous month’s 17.3 million, which itself was a record. More trains are needed, but the question is whether that order will come before Alstom Derby starts laying workers off.

In Scotland, there is concern over continued use of the ‘Inter7City’ HSTs on services from Glasgow and Edinburgh to Inverness and Aberdeen. The drivers’ union ASLEF continues to raise concerns surrounding the crashworthiness of the cabs, and this concern intensified following the tragic crash at Carmont in August 2020.

The union’s fears will not have been helped when power car No. 43129 collided with a tree near Broughty Ferry, Fife at the end of December 2023 – wrecking the cab, but with the driver fortunately escaping serious injury. Their likely replacements are the Class 222s from East Midlands Railway, which are said to be a minimum of 12 months away from being cascaded.

Although CrossCountry’s ‘Voyagers’ are now more than 20 years old, these hard-working diesel units are still being run ‘under the wires’ between Glasgow/Edinburgh to Doncaster, when in reality bi-modes are the way forward. That said, an upgrade of the power supply is needed between Newcastle and Edinburgh, as currently TPE Class 802 bi-modes run this section on diesel power. When a procurement process for new CrossCountry units might begin is unknown, but it is looking increasingly likely to be after the next general election.

Also on the cards for replacement are the Class 150 ‘Sprinters’, as these second generation DMUs are now approaching 40 years old. Not much younger are the Class 153/156 variants, so there is a big procurement programme required across several operators.

It is easy to form the conclusion that the rolling stock programme has become rather disjointed and uncoordinated, for which a large proportion of blame for the situation can be laid at the door of the Government, which has been controlling DfT spending very tightly and questioning almost every decision.

There seems to be little effort by the Government or Treasury in pursuing greener options for rail to trigger a modal shift from road, such as in-fill electrification schemes or even fare reforms.

It has also emerged that in May, a further £1 billion is expected to be cut from the rail budget, and this could include a combination of service reductions and fewer carriages that will further exacerbate overcrowding and passenger frustration.

Decline accusations

Even though the Government is taking all the fare revenue in exchange for a relatively small management fee given to operators, very little money is being fed back into rail projects or investment in new carriages. Not surprisingly the situation has led to accusations of ‘managed decline’ of the railway network at a time when other countries – such as Germany, with its €49 monthly ticket for all local transport modes – are investing and promoting public transport.

In contrast, the current Government appears to be completely against any schemes that will help with decarbonisation projects or any form of promotion for rail tickets, even though this would almost certainly result in more money flowing into the Treasury’s coffers.

It is without doubt, the bleakest, most depressing and frustrating situation the railways have faced in the 30-plus years I have been writing for The RM.